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Economists rely on a variety of indicators to try and get a read on the economy. But the apparent connection between certain data points and trends and future activity isn’t always obvious or straightforward. That doesn’t seem to be the case in regard to the connection between retail sales and employment. Indeed, it makes sense that [...]
In my latest Panzner Insights podcast, “Paradigm Shift,” I discuss one of the week’s big developments: Most people knew that Bernanke & Co.’s grand experiment would end one day, but that notion has largely been seen on Wall Street (and elsewhere) as a vaguely distant possibility. However, things have changed following this week’s publication of the minutes [...]
According to Business Insider’s Joe Weisenthal, the recent rebound in this key indicator is unequivocally good news— even though we’ve seen plenty of similar rebounds before now that meant nothing of the sort— and the longer-term trend has clearly been down— Yep, it’s all good.
Here is a brief commentary from Panzner Insights, my members-only website, which I posted yesterday: Leaving aside the question of whether correlation equals causation, there appears to be a strong link between the level of U.S. interest rates and the overall health of the U.S. economy. As the chart shows, the Federal Reserve-orchestrated slide in interest rates over [...]
Although I’ve often watched the shows hosted by the man Britain’s Independent refers to as “the most widely watched news commentator on the planet,” I’ve never been a guest…until now: Disclose.tv - Max Keiser on the Edge with Michael Panzner: Will the next crash be on Bonds?
At last week’s The Big Picture conference, respected strategist and newsletter writer Michael Belkin posted a comprehensive table with details about the recessions the U.S. has experienced over the past 110 years and what has happened to share prices during those times. Given that the current business cycle is 40 months old (vs. the average expansion of 45-months [...]
There’s plenty of debate about—and money riding on—the question of whether we are in the midst of a sustainable recovery in the housing market. Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic. For one thing, the supply of homes, in terms of what is currently on the market and [...]
In “Podcast: The Fed’s Days Are Numbered,” I discussed the Fed’s failure to achieve its stated objectives on both a long and short-term basis, and questioned why Bernanke & Co. continue to press forward with policies that have not worked and have failed in other settings (e.g., Japan). Their behavior calls to mind Albert Einstein’s (in)famous quip [...]
Today’s data did little to change the fact that ordinary Americans’ views of current economic conditions remain at the odds with what Washington and Wall Street keep telling us. If the history of the past decade or so is any guide, either consumer sentiment is poised for significant improvement, or, more likely, the indicators that the [...]