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Edward Harrison
Edward Harrison – dyplomata, ekonomista. Jest analitykiem Global Macro Advisors. Wcześniej był strategiem w Deutsche Bank, Bain i Yahoo. Jest absolwentem MBA Columbia University. Komentuje wydarzenia gospodarcze w największych mediach amerykańskich. Opinie autora blogu nie powinny być utożsamiane z oficjalnym stanowiskiem NBP w omawianych kwestiach.
Artykuły
Markets anticipate a euro zone solution within days
You saw the piece I wrote on the likely policy path for European sovereign debt crisis. I was on RT’s Capital Account last night making the same points. Over the last few weeks, it had seemed like European policy makers were ready to just let the whole thing collapse. But now, the game of chicken is [...]
Deflationary crisis responses
If you are a debtor who wants to cut your debt load for fear of a liquidity-induced insolvency, there are two ways to make your debt metrics improve. One is to increase revenue and the other is to shrink the debt.
The End of the Fake Recovery
This is going to be a relatively long post. But I think it’s important. I have been meaning to update my thinking about what I heralded in early 2009 as the “Fake Recovery” as the economy in the US began to turn. My view is that without policy support this recovery is now on its [...]
Government as a last employer
In the end, I hearken back to revered economist Hyman Minsky – a modern-day economic godfather who predicted the subprime crisis. “Big Government,” he wrote, should become the “employer of last resort” in a crisis, offering a job to anyone who wants one – for health care, street cleaning, or slum renovation. FDR had a [...]
Banks are never constrained by reserves
In a fiat money system, there is not a very good correlation between base money and M1 and credit because reserves don’t create loans. In practice, the lending operations of commercial banks have no interaction with reserve operations. Lenders simply take applications from customers who seek loans and assess creditworthiness and lend accordingly.
In approving a [...]
Effects of the Quantative Easing
Despite pumping trillions of yen into the economy over the last decade, Japan’s M3 money stock is barely higher now than it was at the beginning of the last decade as the private sector has deleveraged.
I am going to call a top here however. If you look back at the historical data, there have been [...]
Rising economic nationalism
I read a very good piece on the psychology of economic nationalism by SocGen ’s Dylan Grice earlier today. Because of some relevant thoughts from a reader regarding austerity, I wanted to pass on my thoughts on what he wrote in the context of the present economic situation.
This is going to be more a ‘political [...]
Inflating the money supply = hidden tax
Marc Faber was on CNBC talking about the intersection of asset markets with monetary policy. His view is that the Fed will be accommodative for the indefinite future, resulting in a move into riskier assets by investors starved for real returns in fixed income. This could be a boon for asset markets in nominal terms. [...]
Portugal Probably Headed for Bailout
Reuters has reported that the parliament in Portugal will likely reject the socialist government’s austerity budget, a move which will precipitate the collapse of that government, new elections and a likely bailout by the European Union. The Portuguese Prime Minister has indicated that he will resign if his budget is rejected as it will force [...]
Chance for Double Dip Greater Than 50 percent
Robert Shiller puts the odds for a double dip recession at greater than 50%; so he is worried that we are headed back down again. I missed Robert Shiller’s Big Interview with the Wall Street Journal last month so I am posting it now.
Here he is talking to the Wall Street Journal’s Simon Constable about [...]
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