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Edward Harrison
Edward Harrison – dyplomata, ekonomista. Jest analitykiem Global Macro Advisors. Wcześniej był strategiem w Deutsche Bank, Bain i Yahoo. Jest absolwentem MBA Columbia University. Komentuje wydarzenia gospodarcze w największych mediach amerykańskich. Opinie autora blogu nie powinny być utożsamiane z oficjalnym stanowiskiem NBP w omawianych kwestiach.
Artykuły
Portugal Probably Headed for Bailout
Reuters has reported that the parliament in Portugal will likely reject the socialist government’s austerity budget, a move which will precipitate the collapse of that government, new elections and a likely bailout by the European Union. The Portuguese Prime Minister has indicated that he will resign if his budget is rejected as it will force [...]
Chance for Double Dip Greater Than 50 percent
Robert Shiller puts the odds for a double dip recession at greater than 50%; so he is worried that we are headed back down again. I missed Robert Shiller’s Big Interview with the Wall Street Journal last month so I am posting it now.
Here he is talking to the Wall Street Journal’s Simon Constable about [...]
Excessive Debt Will Slow Global Growth
Bill White, formerly of the BIS and now with the OECD spoke to Bloomberg News during the KC Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, WY. He gave some rather pointed answers to questions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
I reviewed some of White’s remarks regarding the global economy and the accumulation [...]
Too Big Too Fail As A Company Strategy
Here are two stories I found interesting. The first is on a BIS paper which says that there are no real scale economies beyond a certain point in banking. Company size is driven by the implicit taxpayer guarantees too big to fail financial institutions get. The second story is in German [...]
Strong uptrend in inflation
David Rosenberg is bullish on bonds. And the reasoning for his bullishness has a lot to do with the deleveraging and excess capacity which the bursting of the credit bubble has brought into view. In this sense, his views on inflation are actually rather similar to modern monetary theory advocates.
In his daily letter to investors [...]
Deflation? Are we far from it?
Wow! We see the word “Deflation” everywhere; we see it in every financial publication and hear it every time we turn on financial TV. We see that the pundits who were bearish because of runaway inflation have just recently included deflation as well as inflation to be the problem. We were talking and warning about [...]
Canada may raise rates soon
Canada reported incredibly strong jobs data before the weekend. Canada grew 93.2k jobs, more than 4 times more than than market expected. It grew almost 50k full time jobs. These are impressive numbers and renews expectations that the Bank of Canada will raise rates when it meets again next week, even though [...]
Fed won’t tighten its policies even next year
There has been some chatter recently on the direction of traditional monetary policy (i.e., the Federal Reserve changing the Fed Funds target rate to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals), with most of it involving a pushing out of the first date of a Fed tightening. [...]
Size of Oil Spill Grows As Do Costs
Last week I tried to bracket the cost exposure for BP as a result of the Deepwater Horizon well head blowout and explosion. That attempt proposed a very wide bracket, from $9 billion to $100+ billion. This week the numbers are being suggested to be between $15 billion and $40 billion. [...]
Inflation is not yet on the corner
As I have argued, Ray Dalio also believes that inflation is not just around the corner…yet. In my view, consumer price inflation is cyclical and therefore not embedded, but deflation is secular. That makes a big difference when considering policy responses. But I have been arguing since October that some austerity [...]
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