W modelu w jakim operuje większość banków centralnych, inflacja nie zawsze jest zła. Zła jest inflacja zbyt wysoka. Jeśli ceny rosną, ale poniżej długoterminowego trendu, przyspieszenie inflacji do tego poziomu może mieć pozytywne skutki. Takie przyspieszanie nazywa się reflacją. Wg analityków Pimco, reflacja to klucz to zrozumienia obecnej polityki Fed.
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Expansionary Austerity In America?
With both the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing surveysindicating increased expansion and with construction spendingand employment increasing, it seems clear that the U.S. economy has started to go from the “”recovery” that feels like a continued recession for most people” state it has been in since the summer of 2009 to something resembling a real recovery, though still nowhere near [...]
Grumpy Old Permabear
Suddenly, a growing number of commentators are suggesting that the worst is behind us — in housing, employment,manufacturing, the auto sector, the technology industry, and elsewhere in between.
Aside from the fact that, historically at least, bursting bubbles have generally been followed by drawn-out and messy overshoots to the downside (e.g., more than four years), while genuine bottoms have, historically at least, gone unrecognized [...]
Chart of the Day: Government Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See
The chart below from the blog Pragmatic Capitalism shows the U.S. Federal government deficit for each quarter since 1952.
Here’s my take, using the same chart a year ago that Pragmatic Capitalism used above today:
The U.S. dollar is the world’s major reserve currency. Especially in the post-Bretton Woods world, this has meant capital account surpluses as foreigners accumulate [...]
Gingrich’s Connection to the Supply-Side Revolution Confirmed
Newt Gingrich has taken a remarkable amount of flak for making claims that as a young Representative in Congress thirty some years ago, he was part of the group of supply-side revolutionaries that developed and pushed through the Reagan economic reforms, in particular the historic tax cut of 1981.
The criticism, oddly enough, has in the [...]
Our So-Called Recovery
Three recent articles (further) undermine the notion that we’re seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
The first examines the so-called rebound in growth:
“Dial 911 If This Story Makes Your Eyes Bleed” (New York Post)
In order to get to [the] 2.8 percent growth [reported last Friday,] the Commerce Department used a very unrealistic level of [...]
The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the US Savings and Loan Crisis and Regulatory Forbearance
This is me thinking out loud.
Now you know I explained a few months ago why questioning Italy’s solvency leads inevitably to monetisation, subsequently adding why Investors will buy Italian bonds after ECB monetisation. So far, this view of the sovereign debt crisis is accurate. But what about so-called moral hazard?
In the second post on why investors might buy [...]
Stephen Harper’s Pro-Growth Agenda
To boost economic growth in Canada, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will:
-Limit government spending.
-Make immigration policy more focused on immigrants that contribute to the economy.
-Increase free trade.
-Reduce regulatory delay for mines and energy production, thus increasing output of it.
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