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Stefan Karlsson
Ekonomiczny blog profesora makroekonomii ze Szwecji.Opinie autora blogu nie powinny być utożsamiane z oficjalnym stanowiskiem NBP w omawianych kwestiach.
Artykuły
Heathcare – ObamaCare
News are now dominated (at least in America) by the upcoming House vote on Obamacare. With Republicans united against it, passage depends on how many moderate or anti-abortion (a key controversy is whether Obamacare will mean federal subsidies for abortion) Democrats will vote for it, and how many will vote against [...]
Fate of The Euro
A reader asked for my opinion of this article by Wolfgang Münchau. More specifically, he asked about Münchau’s assessment that the euro will be weak in the short to medium term future. Münchau’s case can be summarized to the following premises:
1) Fiscal tightening will occur through the euro zone, especially in Greece and the other [...]
The Effects Of Labor Unions
Tino Sanandaji has an interesting post, where he points out that the share of national income (or total factor costs) going to labor is roughly the same in countries where labor unions are strong and in countries where unions are weak. So unions do not seem to redistribute from capital to [...]
Greece will not default
The Greek bond panic has been driven by two concerns: either that Greece will exit the euro and try to convert their euro bonds into “New Drachmas” (or whatever the reintroduced Greek national currency would be called). Or that Greece will default on its debt (and it is assumed, not repay their debts in full [...]
China faces bubbles
5 news items from the Credit Bubble Bulletin that explains why it was necessary for China to again raise reserve requirements (and why this increase probably was too small):
“February 11– Bloomberg: “China’s lending surged to 1.39 trillion yuan ($203 billion) in January and property prices climbed the most in 21 months as banks extended more [...]
Growing concern of Canada`s housing bubble
There are increasing concerns that a housing bubble is being created in Canada, though government officials denies that any problems exists. As I haven’t done much reasearch on the issue, I don’t know enough about the Canadian housing market to say whether or not there is a bubble (A sharp increase in the current account [...]
Regarding US GDP report
The initial U.S. GDP report claimed that GDP rose 1.4% in the fourth quarter (or 5.7% at an annual rate) compared to the previous quarter. It is a strong number, and it establishes clearly that the U.S. economy was growing in the fourth quarter, but it is not quite as strong as it appears at first [...]
Appreciation of the yuan wouldn`t reduce foreign exchange reserves
In his latest column, Robert Samuelsson repeats the myth promoted by Paul Krugman and many others that the Chinese foreign exchange reserves are a measure of its mercantilist trade policies.
This is however not true. To understand why, let’s recall that first of all, an exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply for a [...]
Greek debt risks can be self-fulfilling prophecy
Worries over the big budget deficit in Greece have steadily escalated in recent weeks, causing the yield spread between Greek and German bonds to exceed 300 basis points (3 percentage points). But how serious is this crisis really?
The truth about the issue is that Greece’s public finances are indeed in a bad shape, but that [...]
Paul Krugman distorts record on tax cuts
In his usual pattern, Krugman distorts the record about the Reagan tax cuts. First of all, he shows in his chart when tax changes were implemented and not when they were passed. While future tax changes can affect current behavior, surely the main effect comes when they are implemented.
And secondly, and more importantly, while it [...]
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