A clear economic recovery is observed in Poland and the region of Central and Southeast Europe. GDP growth in Poland stood at 4 per cent in the Q1’2017, and the average for the Visegrad Group and Romania is 3.8 per cent. It is the fastest growing region of the EU.
The International Monetary Fund still believes that emerging markets will return to the economic prosperity which characterized them in the first decade of this century.
The EU 3 per cent of GDP limit in a state budget is of no major macroeconomic relevance in Poland. The issue is different – lack of capability to generate savings in good times.
According to early data on economic growth in the Q2’16 in Poland, the economy grew by 3.1 per cent compared with the Q2’15. Investment may be the cause of the biggest concern, but that is not the picture of the economy as a whole.
The situation on the Polish labor market is very good, most indicators look very "bullish", and people can see it.
The economic downturn in the emerging markets raises questions about their future. Will they continue catching up with the developed economies in spite of the current downturn, as they have over the past 20-30 years?
The labour market is really a bright spot of the Polish economy. Employment and wages are growing, unemployment is falling, and a number of indicators show that companies report increasing demand for employees. However, we still face significant lags in economic activity, in particular, among the elderly and women.
The current decade will not be a golden one for Poland. There is a chance, though, the decade will not be lost. In the coming decade, Poland may grow at an average rate of 3% per year. This is less than in the past 20 years but a slowdown accompanying a growth in the wealth of a country is quite natural.
The Italian Fiat decided to close one of its manufacturing plants in Tychy, Poland. In 2013, Fiat's output in Poland will drop from 650 thousand two years ago to as little as 300 thousand cars. The problems of the Polish Fiat reflect like in a magnifying glass some of the important challenges faced by the Polish economy. Firstly, the high level of industrial productivity does not guarantee a fast development any more. Secondly, we live in an environment where capital has a nationality, and Poland's national capital remains limited. Let's hope that Fiat's problems do not presage an unfavourable period for the Polish economy.