Autor: Bruce Bartlett

b. doradca ds. ekonomicznych prezydenta USA

Enough of stimulus, saving and investment are key for economic recovery

Important questions to be asked by the end of 2009

What is your assessment of current economic situation in US?

I AM FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOLID GDP GROWTH NEXT YEAR BUT I AM CONCERNED ABOUT JOBS. I THINK THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL BE HIGH FOR SOME TIME TO COME.

How successful were president Obama administration actions (Fed etc) to soften crisis?

I THINK THEY DID A BETTER JOB THAN ECONOMISTS GIVE THEM CREDIT FOR. DOWNWARD MOMENTUMN IN THE ECONOMY WAS QUITE STRONG AND WITHOUT SWIFT ACTION ON BOTH THE MONEYARY AND FISCAL SIDE I THINK THE ECONOMY WOULD BE IN MUCH WORSE SHAPE TODAY.

Unemployment or debt is your greater concern?

DEBT IS MY GREATER FEAR BECAUSE NOTHING IS BEING DONE ABOUT IT. THE CONCERNS OF POLITICIANS ENSURE THAT WHATEVER CAN BE DONE ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE DONE.

How quickly United States economy can recover to pre-crisis level?

WE CAN RECOVER THE LOST OUTPUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. BRINGING UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN AND RESTORING LOST WEALTH WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER.

Are there any reforms/regulations still needed to prevent next crisis?

UNDOUBTEDLY. BUT I DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY MIGHT BE.

Some people are saying that global economy is too dependent on exports. What can be done to change it?

EVERYONE’S EXPORT IS SOMEONE ELSE’S IMPORT, SO IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY THAT THE WORLD ECONOMY IS DEPENDENT ON EXPORTS. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE DECLINE IN TRADE AND THE OVERVALUATION OF THE CHINESE CURRENCY, WHICH IS THE MAIN BARRIER TO INTERNATIONAL ADJUSTMENT.

If not tax cuts than what stimulus can better economy?

I THINK WE HAVE DONE ENOUGH STIMULUS AND NEED TO BE LOOKING AT WAYS TO INCREASE THE LONG-TERM TREND RATE OF GROWTH. THAT MEANS INCREASING SAVING AND INVESTMENT, BOTH PUBLIC AND PRIVATE.


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