Risk of Downturn Is High

At last week’s The Big Picture conference, respected strategist and newsletter writer Michael Belkin posted a comprehensive table with details about the recessions the U.S. has experienced over the past 110 years and what has happened to share prices during those times.

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Given that the current business cycle is 40 months old (vs. the average expansion of 45-months — or 37 months if you exclude the bubble-blowing era that began with the Greenspan Fed), the risk is high that another downturn will be starting soon (if it hasn’t already done so).

Under the circumstances, it’s worth keeping in mind, as Belkin noted, that the average recession-period decline for the Dow Jones Industrials average is 30.6 percent.

Uh-oh.

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