„Inflacja jest zemstą młodego pokolenia na starszym za jego rozrzutność”

- tak dowodzi Affordable Housing Institute przekonując, iż inflacja jest rezultatem działań makroekonomicznych, finansowych i politycznych, na które wpływ ma pokolenie mające wpływ na aktualną sytuację finansowę. Jeśli starsze pokolenie zwiększyło nadmiernie wydatki na wojny czy zbyt wysokie emerytury, wówczas młodsze pokolenie może się na nim zemścić, dopuszczając do inflacji. Credit Lime , Sudden Debt i Zero Hedge zastanawiają się, czy spekulanci uderzyli w euro.

Informacja głównych mediów gospodarczych o ataku spekulacyjnym funduszy hedgingowych na euro sprowokowała niektórych ekonomistów do komentarzy. Głos zabrał Credit Lime , bardzo sceptycznie odnosząc się do wszystkich informacji prasowych na ten temat. Zdaniem Sudden Debt 11-proc. spadek euro w stosunku do dolara spowodowało widmo bankructwa Grecji, niewypłacalność reszty państw z grupy PIIGS i, jego zdaniem, kampania w amerykańskich mediach, by osłabić te kraje.

Tak czy owak stawka jest wysoka. The $108 billion figure [total amount of CDS on PIGS], which is the maximum amount on the line if all of the countries were to default, is 0.98 percent of the $11 trillion in outstanding debt of those countries. Warto jednak pamiętać, że wszystkie narzędzia finansowe, włącznie z krytykowanymi dziś CDS, są jak przysłowiowy nóż. Ich wykorzystanie zależy od użytkownika. To narzędzia do zarządzania ryzykiem.

charteurusd

We know that lots of mark-to-market money has already been made on the way down, particularly in sovereign CDS, shorting bonds and shares – plus the plain vanilla FX positions. The first three markets are illiquid and – to my knowledge – short positions are still mostly open.

(…) Trust me, it’s not at all easy to get out of big short positions in small, illiquid markets. There is simply too much risk of a short squeeze. Remember the old adage: He who sells what isn’t his’n, buys it back or goes to pris’n.

Tę opinię na temat wpływu CDS podziela Zerohedge , obrazując swój wywód trzema wykresami pięcioletnich GGB w stosunku do pięcioletnich CDS.

The term structure of yields is basically flat from 12 months out and the term structure of credit is considerably inverted in GGBs. (…) It should be clear from these charts that CDS were not the driver of risk up or down but held their somewhat barometer-like relationship to cash quite healthily.

Może nawet bardziej interesująca jest dyskusja pod wpisem:

Here’s an idea: government policy right now is all about spread compression. CDS gives you synthetic spread compression, more accurately risk transfer. Governments loved CDS risk transfer when it eased funding costs. Now that they have chosen taxpayers to be the counterparty of last resort and spreads are going up, they gotta blame somebody for getting themselves in this spot. (…) A responsible government would never put counterparty risk for CDS on taxpayer backs anyway. What kind of government do you have?

Niektóre bardzo mocno pobudzają wyobraźnię:

Greece getting flushed means that would enrich the CDS OTC derivative tool. Immediately the next target currencies will be attacked by this tool. Currencies will fall like dominoes. At first the dollar will strengthen, equities will fall and gold will go lower. However, soon the recognition will come that a disaster has occurred that is more serious than the Lehman flushing. Confidence in currencies will fall everywhere. Gold will then rise not to $1650 by the same time in 2011 but to $5000 and perhaps beyond.

Ale nie tylko Grecja ma powód do zmartwień. Jak zauważa Edward Hugh z Global Economy Matters, recesja dotarła do Szwecji. Year on year GDP was down by 1%, following a 4.8% fall in the fourth quarter of 2008. That is to say Swedish GDP is now down by just under 6% from GDP in Q4 2007.

sweden gdp two

 

Ciekawą tezę stawia Affordable Housing Institute, iż „inflacja jest zemstą młodych na starszych za rozrzutność”.

1. Inflation allows gentle reductions and realignments of costs and benefits

2. It devalues previous debts

3. It enables government steadily to reduce payments it owes

4. It allows politicians always to be cutting taxes

5. Inflation is controlled by the current generation

charteurusd
charteurusd
sweden gdp two
sweden gdp two

Tagi


Artykuły powiązane

Beyond GDP: how to measure economic growth in the digital era?

Kategoria: New trends
In economists’ discussions we can sometimes hear that GDP is a poor measure of economic development and that we should look for a better one. Nevertheless, GDP is still widely applied in macroeconomic analysis, and alternative measures are used significantly less often, and with various reservations.
Beyond GDP: how to measure economic growth in the digital era?

British monetary policy since the financial crisis

Kategoria: Macroeconomics
Inflation in Britain has remained well under control since the financial crisis. Monetary and government debt management policies have become much more closely connected, and it will be important to loosen the connection while containing post-pandemic inflation pressures.
British monetary policy since the financial crisis

The complexity of civilisation is a sign of development

Kategoria: New trends
Economic growth is underpinned by long-term technology trends. By observing them, we can make forecasts 20 to 30 years into the future. These days automation and digitalisation of the economy is key to growth: short term developments which come and go, such as economic crises, do not change the megatrends.
The complexity of civilisation is a sign of development