The formal criteria for entry are contained in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, which sets targets for government debt, budget deficits, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates. But merely hitting these targets (or worse, just approaching them) at any given point in time has proven to be an inadequate foundation for membership. Indeed, the malleability of the Maastricht terms is the cause of many of the eurozone’s subsequent problems. As long as eurozone debts continue to rise and member economies diverge rather than converge, prospective members should also be stress-tested to see if they can withstand external shocks, and ensure that the membership criteria are sustainable over the long term.
Before Poland decides to share a currency with its main trading partners, it should consider three vital economic conditions: its international competitiveness, the flexibility of its labor market, and the health of its public finances.
Poland’s export markets are steadily growing. But this is not because the country trades mainly with other dynamic developing markets, or because of huge global demand for uniquely Polish products. Rather, Poland simply combines low costs, including wages, and high-quality production. For this reason, Poland is sometimes called the „China of Europe.”
But competitiveness based on cost, rather than brand value or innovation, makes the Polish economy vulnerable. Poland lacks the deeply rooted competitiveness, for example, of Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, or Switzerland. Polish exports are sold under non-Polish names (Italian for shoes, English for clothing). Its machinery exports are part of larger multinational networks run by German, Dutch and others’ global companies. And Poland’s cost advantage would suddenly melt away if the złoty were to strengthen sharply.
Although Polish companies are working hard to build brands abroad, this can take decades. In the meantime, the country must be careful about joining the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) – the narrow exchange rate band within which applicant currencies must operate for at least two years prior to adopting the euro. Doing so could strengthen of the złoty, as it did to the Slovak koruna, and wipe out Poland’s competitive advantage.
Another important aspect of Poland’s competitiveness is its flexible labor market. One in four employees is on a fixed-term contract or self-employed. A quarter of the typical Polish wage comprises variable elements, making it easy to freeze, or even lower, compensation during tougher economic times. It also means that entrepreneurs are able to hire staff on short-term contracts when they are unsure of the business outlook. This flexibility also helps the economy, more generally, ride out external shocks.
But flexible labor markets have disadvantages, too. Companies tend not to invest in talent or develop new skills, and the quality of existing skills can suffer. In the longer run, flexible labor markets also increase structural unemployment and fuel the informal economy.
Furthermore, shortages in Poland’s residential rental market restrict workers’ ability to move to where the jobs are. Arguably, Poland’s labor market is more akin to that of Spain than Scandinavia, where generous social protection allows for extensive employee training.
Finally, Poland needs sound public finances – that is, fiscal space for automatic stabilizers during economic crises (in other words, money saved for hard times). This allows the government to implement countercyclical measures, while ensuring stable finances over the economic cycle.
Such a policy was successfully implemented in 2009 and 2010, but the government lacked the funds it needed when economic conditions subsequently deteriorated. Sound public finances require not only low public debt, but also appropriate budgetary policy, which includes cutting spending, or raising taxes, during boom times, not during downturns, as was recently the case.
Broad-based competitiveness, truly flexible labor markets, and prudent budgeting are not beyond Poland’s reach. In each case, there are other national examples to emulate: Switzerland’s competitiveness, Denmark’s labor markets, and Estonia’s public finances, for example. Before Poland joins the eurozone, its economic policy should be directed toward thesethree criteria of true economic success.
Prof. Marek Belka, president of Polish central bank Narodowy Bank Polski.
© Project Syndicate, 2014.