A recession is now inevitable. But it will be followed by a quick recovery? The optimists are hoping for a V-shaped recovery, but it can be a little less vigorous, can require a fiscal and monetary stimulus and take a U-shape, and in some sectors even an L-shape.
The COVID-19 pandemic has sent a global shockwave. According to EY experts, it meets all the criteria of a “black swan” event. It was impossible to predict and has a huge impact on reality, as confirmed by surveys conducted by PwC and McKinsey.
The global financial crisis took economists, financiers and politicians by surprise, even though it should not have. The levels of household, government and corporate debt were soaring. But we knew how to alleviate the crisis. The current pandemic-related crisis is different.
So far, the global economy has been suffering chiefly as a consequence of an economic standstill in China triggered by the outbreak of coronavirus. However, the situation could get far worse. At least two alternative scenarios for the future of the global economy are now on the table.
In December 2019, Slovakia posted lowest GDP growth increase since 2013. The central European country has been affected by decreasing foreign demand. With the global slowdown of the automotive sector, experts warn of overreliance on car-production in Slovakia.
The latest reports of international institutions, investment banks and rating agencies include warnings about a possible global recession and financial crisis. However, the field of economics doesn't have a methodology that would allow it to accurately predict when this will happen.
In the Global Financial Stability Report the IMF examines the evolution of financial markets since the recent financial crisis and points to the buildup of downside risks in various segments of the financial market.
During the 26th Kopaonik Business Forum the main topic was the condition of Serbian economy ten years after the great global economic crisis. Serbia needs 185 years to reach an average purchasing power of the EU if its economic growth rate stays the same.