Bez pakietu stymulacyjnego gospodarka byłaby w gorszym stanie

Choć opinie ekonomistów są podzielone co do skuteczności poszczególnych działań administracji, to jednak większość z wypowiadających się publicznie nie neguje, iż pakiet stymulacyjny był potrzebny. Także prof. John Taylor, prof. Robert Reich czy dr Armold King. Skutki ewentualnego braku wspomagania gospodarki przedstawili dr Mark Zandi i prof. Blinder w swoim najnowszym raporcie. Cytował go sekretarz skarbu Timothy Geithner podczas spotkania  z inwestorami na Wall Street.

No to jak, pakiet stymulacyjny pomógł w końcu czy nie? Okazuje się, że nie łatwo odpowiedzieć na to pytanie nawet takim ekspertom jak dr Mark Zandi, proponent polityki gospodarczej obecnej administracji amerykańskiej, i prof. John Taylor, który nie szczędzi krytyki prezydentowi Obamie. Obaj podczas dyskusji w telewizji CBS zgodzili się, że niewłaściwy był arbitralny wykup poszczególnych instytucji finansowych przeprowadzony przez Departement Skarbu. Nie było też różnicy zdań co do utworzenia funduszu TARP, czyli tzw. banku złych kredytów. Zarówno Zandi, jak i Taylor położyli jednak nacisk na to, że koniecznie muszą zostać obniżone podatki.

JOHN TAYLOR: (…)  What I come to is that these have not had an impact, and now, moreover, we’re in a situation where the debt has gotten so high, that we need to address that. And people are worried about these tax increases. Everyone agrees that increasing taxes is not going to help the economy. Yet, that is what we are faced right now.

The best stimulus, I think, would be to forego any tax increases for at least the next few years.

MARK ZANDI: Well, I think John is right. I wouldn’t allow those tax increases to take hold on January 1 either. I think economy’s still too fragile for that.

But I would say — and I — and I agree with John that our fiscal problems are very serious, and we need to address them. But we’re not going to address our fiscal problems unless this economy is off and running, unless the recovery evolves into a self-sustaining economic expansion. And we’re not there yet.

Prof. Taylor i dr Zandi dyskutowali na temat raportu przygotowanego przez Moody`s i prof. Blindera, doradcę komisji ds. deficytu w Kongresie. Wykres przedstawia wszystkie rodzaje interwencji gospodarczej obecnego rządu USA: ustawę o pierwszym pakiecie stymulacyjnym wraz z działaniami w ramach polityki socjalnej (zwiększenie programu kuponów żywnościowych dla bezrobotnych), inne rodzaje polityki wspomagającej, program pieniądze za graty (samochody, artykuły AGD), ulgi podatkowe .

pakiet_stymulacyjny_skutek

Niektórzy, jak doradca ds. polityki gospodarczej prez. Billa Clintona prof. Robert Reich, twierdzą, że pakiet był zbyt mały, aby mógł pomóc

In fairness, no one knew how sick the economy was in February 2009 when Congress approved the initial stimulus. Yet by late spring 2009 the White House knew the extent of the damage and should have pushed much harder for significantly more spending. Almost a third of the initial stimulus, moreover, came in the form of temporary tax cuts, which already had been proven relatively ineffective at spurring demand after President Bush tried them in 2008. And many states were engaging in reverse stimulus policies, slashing spending and increasing taxes. The administration knew its stimulus was not nearly up to the job.

Arnold Kling krytykuje raport dr Zandiego i prof. Blindera na temat pakietu stymulacyjnego w oparciu o model analityczny Moody’s i poprzez pryzmat 4 scenariuszy, gdy

  • wszystkie rodzaje fiskalnej polityki wspomagającej gospodarkę są prowadzone,
  • żadna z nich nie jest stosowana, ale istnieje pakiet stymulacyjny
  • polityka fiskalna jest prowadzona, ale nie ma pakietu stymulacyjnego
  • żadna polityka wspomagająca gospodarkę nie jest prowadzona ani nie istnieje pakiet stymulacyjny

Efekt braku działań według Zandiego i Blindera byłby katastrofalny:

(…) the downturn continues into 2011. Real GDP falls a stunning 7.4% in 2009 and another 3.7% in 2010. The peak-to-trough decline in GDP is therefore close to 12%, compared to an actual decline of about 4%. By the time employment hits bottom, some 16.6 million jobs are lost in this scenario—about twice as many as actually were lost. The unemployment rate peaks at 16.5%, and although not determined in this analysis, it would not be surprising if the underemployment rate approached one-fourth of the labor force. The federal budget deficit surges to over $2 trillion in fiscal year 2010, $2.6 trillion in fiscal year 2011, and $2.25 trillion in FY 2012. Remember, this is with no policy response.

we simulated the Moody’s Analytics’ model of the U.S. economy under four scenarios:
1. a baseline that includes all the policies actually pursued
2. a counterfactual scenario with the fiscal stimulus but without the financial policies
3. a counterfactual with the financial policies but without fiscal stimulus
4. a scenario that excludes all the policy responses.8

Raport stał się popularny wśród administracji do tego stopnia, że cytował go dwukrotnie na spotkaniu z inwestorami na Wall Street w poniedziałek sekretarz skarbu Timothy Geithner, który starał się wlewać nadzieję na przyszłość:

• Exports are booming because American companies are very competitive and lead the world in many high-tech industries.

• Private job growth has returned — not as fast as we would like, but at an earlier stage of this recovery than in the last two recoveries. Manufacturing has generated 136,000 new jobs in the past six months.

• Businesses have repaired their balance sheets and are now in a strong financial position to reinvest and grow.

• American families are saving more, paying down their debt and borrowing more responsibly. This has been a necessary adjustment because the borrow-and-spend path we were on wasn’t sustainable.

• The auto industry is coming back, and the Big Three — Chrysler, Ford and General Motors — are now leaner, generating profits despite lower annual sales.

• Major banks, forced by the stress tests to raise capital and open their books, are stronger and more competitive. Now, as businesses expand again, our banks are better positioned to finance growth.

• The government’s investment in banks has already earned more than $20 billion in profits for taxpayers, and the TARP program will be out of business earlier than expected — and costing nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars less than projected last year.

Jednak Dean Baker jest pesymistą i nie wyklucza kolejnych tąpnięć gospodarki wskutek załamania rynku nieruchomości i kończącego się… pakietu stymulacyjnego.

The most obvious factor depressing growth will be the cutbacks by state and local governments that are trying to cope with huge budget shortfalls. A second factor is the winding down of the stimulus. Stimulus spending will stay near peak levels in the third quarter, but will start to wind down in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011.

Perhaps the biggest factor depressing growth will again be the housing market. A flurry of sales of homes due to the expiring tax credit helped boost GDP in the second quarter. While the sale price of an existing home is not counted in GDP, the fees associated with the sale are counted. The uptick in sales in the second quarter added 0.5 percentage points to GDP. The drop in sales will subtract at least this much from GDP in the third quarter.

pakiet_stymulacyjny_skutek
pakiet_stymulacyjny_skutek

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