The UK was always going to be an important laboratory experiment for the US, as it imposed austerity by choice. This strategy has demonstrably failed, as the UK economy looks to have gone back into recession, public...
In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was "Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011". I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now...
You saw the piece I wrote on the likely policy path for European sovereign debt crisis. I was on RT’s Capital Account last night making the same points. Over the last few weeks, it had seemed like European policy makers...
If you are a debtor who wants to cut your debt load for fear of a liquidity-induced insolvency, there are two ways to make your debt metrics improve. One is to increase revenue and the other is to shrink the debt.
This is going to be a relatively long post. But I think it’s important. I have been meaning to update my thinking about what I heralded in early 2009 as the “Fake Recovery” as the economy in the US began to turn....
In the end, I hearken back to revered economist Hyman Minsky – a modern-day economic godfather who predicted the subprime crisis. “Big Government,” he wrote, should become the “employer of last resort” in...
In a fiat money system, there is not a very good correlation between base money and M1 and credit because reserves don’t create loans. In practice, the lending operations of commercial banks have no...
Despite pumping trillions of yen into the economy over the last decade, Japan’s M3 money stock is barely higher now than it was at the beginning of the last decade as the private sector has deleveraged. I am going to...
I read a very good piece on the psychology of economic nationalism by SocGen ‚s Dylan Grice earlier today. Because of some relevant thoughts from a reader regarding austerity, I wanted to pass on my thoughts on...
Marc Faber was on CNBC talking about the intersection of asset markets with monetary policy. His view is that the Fed will be accommodative for the indefinite future, resulting in a move into riskier assets by investors...