Expectations for Fed Tapering Timing

This Great Graphic was posted on Sober Look last week (August 24).

It shows the differences of opinion among many of the major banks, including primary dealers for the timing of the Fed’s tapering.  We note that most US banks included have the Sept call, with Jefferies, the investment bank looking for October, while Bank America Merrill Lynch anticipating year-end tapering.  There are, we have suggested, three dimensions to the issue:  when to taper, by how much and how to distribute between Treasuries and MBS.