Opinions are divided on the strength of the interdependence of the stock market trends and economic growth. In Poland one can often encounter the fairly popular idea that changes in the stock market outlook precede changes in the macroeconomic situation by about six months.
According to early data on economic growth in the Q2’16 in Poland, the economy grew by 3.1 per cent compared with the Q2’15. Investment may be the cause of the biggest concern, but that is not the picture of the economy as a whole.
The economic sanctions are only a tertiary cause of Russia's trouble with economic growth. The recession is in full swing, but Vladimir Putin will not reform the economy – argues Sergei Guriev, former President of Moscow's New Economic School.
Although Poland and the other CEE countries have coped well with the current crisis, the pace of convergence is gradually slowing. The remedy can be found in “The Warsaw Consensus”- a complex growth model for the region, which can lead to a steady development.
The decline in oil price and economic sanctions deepened the slowdown in Russia’s GDP lasting from 2011. Due to the lack of internal and external growth drivers, this time Russia is unlikely to return to a high-growth path over the next few years.