In Good Company

In a 16-slide gallery feature, „Apocalypse How? Dire 2012 Forecasts,” Bloomberg highlights the perspectives of those with a penchant for telling it like it is.

Pessimistic Prognosticators

Only the gloomiest of Wall Street’s prognosticators got it right in 2008 and 2009. Since then, their pessimism has been infectious. On almost any investing topic — from emerging markets to U.S. stocks, from commodities to sovereign debt — there are respected experts predicting the worst.

So far, apocalypse hasn’t arrived. The U.S. economy shows signs of life. Europe is muddling through its debt concerns. The economies of China and India have slowed but not stalled.

If these commentators, who range from short-seller Jim Chanos to GMO’s Jeremy Grantham, prove prescient — and Bloomberg.com will check in later this year to see if they are — the biggest surprise in 2012 would be some truly good news.

Of course, I was flattered (and surprised) to find my views featured alongside those of a number of individuals I admire and respect.

Michael Panzner wrote the book „Financial Armageddon” in 2007 and an equally gloomy tome in 2009: „When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era.” On his blog, Panzner describes „an economy teetering on the edge of disaster,” and criticizes those betting on recovery. „It appears somebody put too much Kool-Aid in the optimists’ eggnog,” he wrote Dec. 28. In a Jan. 11 email, he said: „The fundamental outlook is even worse now than it was a few weeks ago, given (the lack of positive) developments in Europe and growing evidence that the economies of major countries around the world are deteriorating fast.”

As a long-time student of the markets, I’m naturally wary when articles like this appear in the mainstream media, as they can be a sign that sentiment has reached a bullish or bearish extreme (and thus is about to be proved totally wrong). However, given that the stock market is not far from its post-crash-rebound highs, while CEOs. investors, strategists,economists, and newsletter writers are generally optimistic about the outlook, I don’t think I have too much to worry about.