Majority will be right again

Back in October 2007, two months before the recession „officially” began, most Americans were predicting that a downturn was on the way, as Bloomberg reported in „Americans Turn Negative on Economy, Expect Recession, Poll Says”:

Almost two-thirds of Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and a majority believes the economy is already faltering, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey.

By 65 percent to 29 percent, Americans say they expect a recession, the poll found. Fifty-one percent say the economy is doing poorly, compared with 46 percent who say it is doing well, the gloomiest view since February 2003.

Now, according to a recent Gallup survey, a solid majority of those who live here are making another unwelcome prediction about our future:

Sixty-three percent of Americans believe their taxes will increase in the next 12 months, while 4% expect a change that will reduce their taxes. Majorities of all income groups share this view, though it is more common among Americans in upper-income households.

Americans in most demographic groups widely expect their taxes to increase over the next year, but there is pronounced variation among income groups, as noted, and by political party affiliation.

Specifically, 74% of Republicans expect their taxes to go up, as do 64% of independents. A proportionately lower 49% of Democrats share that view, but it is still the most common response within the group. Forty-one percent of Democrats expect their taxes to remain unchanged, and 6% think theirs will go down.

Despite my contrarian nature, I’m betting the majority will be right — again.